Neural Networks in Finance, 1st Edition
Preface
1 Introduction
1.1 Forecasting, Classification and Dimensionality Reduction
1.2 Synergies
1.3 The Interface Problems
1.4 Plan of the Book
Econometric Foundations
2 What Are Neural Networks
2.1 Linear Regression Model
2.2 GARCH Nonlinear Models
2.2.1 Polynomial Approximation
2.2.2 Orthogonal Polynomials
2.3 Model Typology
2.4 What Is A Neural Network
2.4.1 Feedforward Networks
2.4.2 Squasher Functions
2.4.3 Radial Basis Functions
2.4.4 Ridgelet Networks
2.4.5 Jump Connections
2.4.6 Multilayered Feedforward Networks
2.4.7 Recurrent Networks
2.4.8 Networks with Multiple Outputs
2.5 Neural Network Smooth-Transition Regime-Switching Models
2.5.1 Smooth Transition Regime Switching Models
2.5.2 Neural Network Extensions
2.6 Nonlinear Principal Components: \ Intrinsic Dimensionality
2.6.1 Linear Principal Components
2.6.2 Nonlinear Principal Components
2.6.3 Application to Asset Pricing
2.7 Neural Networks and Discrete Choice
2.7.1 Discriminant Analysis
2.7.2 Logit Regression
2.7.3 Probit Regression
2.7.4 Weibull Regression
2.7.5 Neural Network Models for Discrete Choice
2.7.6 Models with Multinomial Ordered Choice
Criticism and Data Mining
2.9 Conclusion
2.9.1 Matlab Program Notes
2.9.2 Suggested Exercises
3 Estimation of a Network with Evolutionary Computation
3.1 Data Preprocessing
3.1.1 Stationarity: Dickey-Fuller Test
3.1.2 Seasonal Adjustment: Correction for Calendar Effects
3.1.3 Scaling of Data
3.2 The Nonlinear Estimation Problem
3.2.1 Local Gradient-Based Search: \ The Quasi- Backpropagation 46
Simulated Annealing 48
3.2.3 Evolutionary Stochastic Search: The Genetic Algorithm
Population creation
Selection
Crossover
Mutation
Election tournament
Elitism
Convergence
3.2.4 Evolutionary Genetic Algorithms
3.2.5 Hybridization: Coupling Gradient- and Genetic Search Methods
3.3 Repeated Estimation and Thick Models
3.4 Matlab Examples: Numerical Performance 53
3.4.1 Numerical Optimization
3.4.2 Approximation with Networks 54
3.5 Conclusion
3.5.1 Matlab Program Notes
3.5.2 Suggested Exercises
4 Evaluation of Network Estimation
4.1 In-Sample Criteria
4.1.1 Goodness of Fit Measure
4.1.2 Hannan-Quinn Information Criterion
4.1.3 Serial Independence and Homoskedasticity: and McLeod-Li Tests
4.1.4 Symmetry
Normality
4.1.6 Neural Network Test for Neglected Nonlinearity: Lee-White-Granger Test
4.1.7 Brock-Deckert-Scheinkman Test for Nonlinear Patterns
4.1.8 Summary of in-sample criteria
4.1.9 Matlab Example
4.2 Out-of-Sample Criteria
4.2.1 Recursive Methodology
4.2.2 Root Mean Squared Error Statistic
4.2.3 Diebold-Mariano Test for Out of Sample Errors
4.2.4 Harvey, Leybourne, and Newbold "Size Correction" of Diebold-Mariano Test
4.2.5 Out-of-Sample Comparison with Nested Models
4.2.6 Success Ratio for Sign Predictions: Directional Accuracy
4.2.7 Predictive Stochastic\ Complexity
subsection \numberline 4.2.8 Cross-Validation and the Method 69
How Large for Predictive Accuracy
4.3 Interpretive Criteria and Significance of Results
4.3.1 Analytic Derivatives
4.3.2 Finite Differences
4.3.3 Does It Matter
4.3.4 Matlab Example: Analytic and Finite Differences
4.3.5 Bootstrapping for Assessing Significance
4.4 Implementation Strategy
4.5 Conclusion
4.5.1 Matlab Program Notes
4.5.2 Suggested Exercises
1em Applications and Examples
5 Estimation and Forecasting with Artificial Data
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Stochastic Chaos Model
5.2.1 In-Sample Performance
5.2.2 Out-of-Sample Performance
5.3 Stochastic Volatility/Jump Diffusion Model
5.3.1 In-Sample Performance
5.3.2 Out-of-Sample Performance
5.4 The Markov Regime Switching Model
5.4.1 In-Sample Performance
5.4.2 Out-of-Sample Performance
5.5 VRS Model
5.5.1 In-Sample Performance
5.6 Distorted Long Memory Model
5.6.1 In-Sample Performance
5.6.2 Out-of-Sample Performance
5.7 BSOP Model: Implied Volatility Forecasting
5.7.1 In-Sample Performance
5.7.2 Out-of-Sample Performance
5.8 Conclusion
5.8.1 Matlab Program Notes
5.8.2 Suggested Exercises
6 Times Series: Examples from Industry and Finance
6.1 Forecasting Production in the Automotive Industry
6.1.1 The Data
6.1.2 Models of Quantity Adjustment
6.1.3 In-Sample Performance
6.1.4 Out-of-Sample Performance
6.1.5 Interpretation of Results
6.2 Corporate Bonds: Which Spreads? 110
6.2.1 The Data
6.2.2 A Model for the Adjustment of Spreads
In-Sample Performance
6.2.4 Out-of-Sample Performance
6.2.5 Interpretation of Results
6.3 Conclusion
6.3.1 Matlab Program Notes
6.3.2 Suggested Exercises
7 Inflation and Deflation: Hong Kong and Japan
7.1 Hong Kong
7.1.1 The Data
7.1.2 Model Specification
7.1.3 In-Sample Performance
7.1.4 Out-of-Sample Performance
7.1.5 Interpretation of Results
7.2 Japan
7.2.1 The Data
7.2.2 Model Specification
7.2.3 In-Sample Performance
7.2.4 Out-of-Sample Performance
7.2.5 Interpretation of Results
7.3 Conclusion
7.3.1 Matlab Program Notes
7.3.2 Suggested Exercises
8 Classification: \ Credit Card Default and Bank Failures
8.1 Credit Card Risk
8.1.1 The Data
8.1.2 In-Sample Performance
8.1.3 Out-of-Sample Performance
8.1.4 Interpretation of Results
8.2 Banking Intervention
8.2.1 The Data
8.2.2 In-Sample Performance
8.2.3 Out-of-Sample Performance
8.2.4 Interpretation of Results
8.3 Conclusion
8.3.1 Matlab Program Notes
8.3.2 Suggested Exercises
9 Dimensionality Reduction and Implied Volatility Forecasting
9.1 Hong Kong
9.1.1 The Data
9.1.2 In-Sample Performance
9.1.3 Out-of-Sample Performance
9.2 United States
9.2.1 The Data
9.2.2 In-Sample Performance
9.2.3 Out-of-Sample Performance
9.3 Conclusion
9.3.1 Matlab Program Notes
9.3.2 Suggested Exercises
