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The Future of the World's Climate
 
 

The Future of the World's Climate, 2nd Edition

 
The Future of the World's Climate, 2nd Edition,Ann Henderson-Sellers,Kendal McGuffie,ISBN9780123869173
 
 
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Henderson-Sellers   &   McGuffie   

Elsevier Science

9780123869173

9780123869579

660

This new edition (formerly titled Future Climates of the World) offers a state-of-the-art overview—based on the latest climate science modeling data and projections available—of our understanding of future climates.

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Key Features

  • Winner of the 2012 ALSI Choice Award from Atmospheric Science Librarians International
  • Each chapter has undergone major revisions and new content has been added throughout
  • More than 200 tables, diagrams, illustrations, and photographs
  • A cross-disciplinary resource encompassing the geosciences, life science, social science, and engineering

Description

At a time of so much politicized debate over the phenomenon of global warming, the second edition of The Future of the World's Climate places the discussion in a broader geological, paleo-climatic, and astronomical context. This book is a resource based on reviews of current climate science and supported by sound, accurate data and projections made possible by technological advances in climate modeling.

Crucially, this title examines in detail a wide variety of aspects, including human factors like land use, expanding urban climates, and governmental efforts at mitigation, such as the Kyoto Protocol. It also examines large-scale, long-term changes in oceans, glaciers, and atmospheric composition, including tropospheric ozone and aerosols. Weather extremes are addressed, as well as the impact of catastrophic events such as massive volcanism and meteorite impacts.

Readers will find a complete picture of the Earth's future climate, delivered by authors drawn from all over the world and from the highest regarded peer-reviewed groups; most are also contributors to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Assessment Reports.

Readership

Primary market includes (but is not limited to) the geosciences, life science, social science, and engineering; Secondary market consists of instructors and students at the undergraduate and graduate levels studying climatology, atmospheric science, oceanography, geology, environmental science and engineering, ecology, and, to a lesser extent, political science.

Ann Henderson-Sellers

Affiliations and Expertise

Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia

Kendal McGuffie

Affiliations and Expertise

University of Technology, Sydney, Australia

The Future of the World's Climate, 2nd Edition

Dedication

Foreword

Preface

Abbreviations & Acronyms

Stephen H. Schneider: In Memoriam

Introduction

Chapter 1. Seeing Further

1.1. The Future of Our Climate: Introduction and Outline

1.2. Global Warming: Climate’s ‘Elephant in the Room’

1.3. The Complexity of the Future of the World’s Climate

1.4. Climate Future of the Coorong: Communicating from Global ‘Ground Zero’

1.5. Futurology of Climate

Introduction

Chapter 2. People, Policy and Politics in Future Climates

2.1. Introduction: Human and Ecological Systems and Paradigm Change

2.2. The Challenges of Governance for Mitigation of Climate Change

2.3. A Governance Approach to Address Climate Change

2.4. Science and Politics in the International Climate Regime

2.5. The Role of the UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol

2.6. Top-Down Actions Stemming From Inside and Outside UNFCCC/Kyoto

2.7. Bottom-Up Approaches: Civil Society Participation and Influence

2.8. Prospects for the Future

2.9. Future Unknowns: Living on a Warmer Earth?

Chapter 3. Urban Climates and Global Climate Change

3.1. Introduction: Living in Cities

3.2. Local and Regional Urban Climates: The Biophysical Basis

3.3. Cities and Global Climate Change

3.4. Current State-of-the-Art in Simulating Urban Climates

3.5. Cities and the Future Climate

Chapter 4. Human Effects on Climate Through Land-Use-Induced Land-Cover Change

4.1. Introduction: Land Change and Climate

4.2. The Scale of Human Modification

4.3. Mechanisms/Processes Through Which LULCC Affects Climate

4.4. Links Between LULCC and Climate

4.5. Land Use and Understanding our Future Climate

Introduction

Chapter 5. Fast and Slow Feedbacks in Future Climates

5.1. Introduction: The Sensitive Climate

5.2. Fast-Feedback Climate Sensitivity

5.3. Slow Feedback Processes Related to the Carbon Cycle

5.4. Coupled Climate–Carbon Cycle Model Results and Linear Feedback Analysis

5.5. Other Slow and Less-Considered Feedbacks

5.6. Climate Feedbacks and the Future Climate

Chapter 6. Variability and Change in the Ocean

6.1. Introduction: Climate Variability

6.2. Observed Ocean Variability and Change

6.3. Projections for the Future

6.4. Ocean Biogeochemical Feedbacks

6.5. Oceanic Variability and Change

Chapter 7. Climatic Variability on Decadal to Century Timescales

7.1. Introduction: Oceans and Future Climate

7.2. Tropical Decadal Variability

7.3. Description of Extra-tropical Decadal Variability

7.4. Evidence of Centennial Variability

7.5. The Stochastic Climate Model: The Null Hypothesis For Climate Variability

7.6. Summary: Future Unknowns

Chapter 8. The Future of the World's Glaciers

8.1. Introduction: Climate and the Cryosphere

8.2. Elements

8.3. Glacier Mass Balance

8.4. Modelling Tools

8.5. Recent and Present States of the World’s Glaciers

8.6. The Outlook for Glaciers

8.7. Reflections: Glaciers and the Future Climate

Chapter 9. Future Regional Climates

9.1. Introduction: Close-up of Climate Change

9.2. Regional-Scale Climate Phenomena

9.3. Downscaling Global Climate Projections

9.4. Sources of Uncertainty

9.5. Achieving Regional Climate Predictions

9.6. Regionalizing Future Climate

Introduction

Chapter 10. Climate and Weather Extremes

10.1. Introduction: Extremes of Climate

10.2. Methodological Issues Regarding the Analysis of Extremes

10.3. Observed Changes in Extremes

10.4. Climate Processes and Climate Extremes

10.5. How Well do Climate Models Simulate Extremes?

10.6. The Future

10.7. Extremes in Our Future Climate

Chapter 11. Interaction Between Future Climate and Terrestrial Carbon and Nitrogen

11.1. Introduction: Cycling Terrestrial Nutrients

11.2. Climate System Feedbacks

11.3. Biogeochemical Processes

11.4. Observational Constraints

11.5. Modelling Nitrogen–Carbon Interactions

11.6. Consequences of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change for Carbon and Nitrogen Cycles

11.7. Vegetation and the Future Climate

Chapter 12. Atmospheric Composition Change

12.1. Introduction

12.2. Key Interactions in the Climate–Chemistry System

12.3. Trends in Emissions of Chemical Species and in Chemically Active Greenhouse Compounds

12.4. Distribution and Changes of Chemical Active Greenhouse Gases and Their Precursors

12.5. Climate Impact from Emission Changes

12.6. Contributions to Tropospheric Changes from the Transport Sector and for Different Regions

12.7. Impact on Tropospheric Composition from Climate Change and Changes In Stratospheric Composition

12.8. Cross Cutting Issues (Policy Relations, Integration)

12.9. Summary and Conclusions

Chapter 13. Climate–Chemistry Interaction

13.1. Atmospheric Composition, Chemistry, and Climate

13.2. Climatically-Important Chemical Compounds

13.3. Climate–Chemistry Interaction of Tropospheric Ozone

13.4. Climate–Chemistry Interaction of Tropospheric Sulfate Aerosols

13.5. Mitigation Policies for Climate and Air Quality

13.6. Future Study of Climate–Chemistry Interaction

Introduction

Chapter 14. Records from the Past, Lessons for the Future

14.1. Timescales of Climate Change, their Causation, and Detection

14.2. Regional Responses to Millennial-Scale Forcing

14.3. Rapid Climate Changes

14.4. Biosphere Feedbacks

14.5. Lessons from the Past for the Study of Climate Changes

14.6. Lessons from the Past for Future Climates

Chapter 15. Modelling the Past and Future Interglacials in Response to Astronomical and Greenhouse Gas Forcing

15.1. Introduction: Interglacials and Warm Climate

15.2. Model and Experiments Used for Simulating the Last Nine Interglacials

15.3. Precession and Obliquity During the Interglacials

15.4. Latitudinal and Seasonal Distribution of Insolation

15.5. Modelling the GHG and Insolation Contributions to the Difference Between Pre- and Post-MBE Interglacials

15.6. GHG and Insolation Contributions to the Individual Interglacial Climates

15.7. Future of Our Interglacial

15.8. Probing Future Astro-Climates

Chapter 16. Catastrophe

16.1. Introduction: What is a Climate Catastrophe?

16.2. Massive Volcanism: Case Study of the Triassic–Jurassic (Tr–J) Event

16.3. Extraterrestrial Impacts: Case Study of the End-Cretaceous Events

16.4. The Potential of the K–Pg Impact to Cause Environmental Change

16.5. Comparison of the Tr–J And K–Pg Events

16.6. ‘Deep-Time’ Context for Anthropogenic Environmental and Climate Change

16.7. Future Climate Catastrophes

Introduction

Chapter 17. Future Climate Surprises

17.1. Introduction: Probing Future Climates

17.2. Defining Climate Surprises

17.3. Melting of Large Masses of Ice

17.4. Changes in Atmospheric and Oceanic Circulation

17.5. Loss of Biomes

17.6. Coping with Climate Surprises

17.7. Future Climate: Surprises, Responses, and Recovery Strategies

17.8. Conclusion: Gaps in Knowledge

Chapter 18. Future Climate

18.1. Gaia and Earth System Science

18.2. Humans in the Earth System

18.3. Trans-Disciplinary Earth System Science

Bibliography

Index

Editors’ Biographies

Biographies

 
 
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